Tuesday, November 25, 2025
Futures: LME copper opened at $10,752/mt overnight. After opening, it fluctuated upward to a high of $10,787.5/mt, then the price center declined. Approaching the end of the session, it touched a low of $10,743/mt before rising, finally closing at $10,781.5/mt, up 0.03%. Trading volume reached 12,000 lots and open interest reached 328,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2601 contract opened at 86,080 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, it touched a high of 86,180 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward to a low of 85,940 yuan/mt, finally consolidating sideways to close at 86,040 yuan/mt. Trading volume reached 24,000 lots and open interest reached 191,000 lots.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) On November 24, Codelco announced it had signed an agreement with India's Adani Group to cooperate on copper mine project exploration in Chile.
(2) On November 24, in response to the US imposing hefty tariffs of 40% on various products, Southeast Asian countries including Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia have recently tightened rules of origin (ROO) and regional value content (RVC) requirements. Several countries have begun strengthening inspections to strictly prevent companies from evading tariffs through transshipment or false labeling. The new measures are expected to impact the export layout to the US for industries such as metals, electronics, and auto parts within the region.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On November 24, SMM's spot premiums for #1 copper cathode against the front-month 2512 contract were quoted at premiums of 10-160 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 85 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM #1 copper cathode price ranged from 86,060 to 86,410 yuan/mt. In the morning session, SHFE copper briefly rose to 86,300 yuan/mt before starting to give up gains, touching a low of 86,030 yuan/mt near 11:00 am, then returning above 86,100 yuan/mt. The SHFE copper inter-month spread fluctuated between contango 50 and contango 30 yuan/mt. The import loss for the front-month SHFE copper contract widened to nearly 1,000 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, as the meeting week begins, some suppliers reduced offers. With copper prices stabilizing around 86,000 yuan/mt, downstream buyers returned to just-in-time procurement. Spot transactions are expected to maintain a slight premium trend tomorrow.
(2) Guangdong: On November 24, spot premiums for Guangdong's #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract were quoted at premiums of 90-160 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 125 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Premiums for SX-EW copper were quoted at 0-40 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 20 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous day. The average price for Guangdong's #1 copper cathode was 86,270 yuan/mt, up 415 yuan/mt from the previous day. The average price for SX-EW copper was 86,165 yuan/mt, up 425 yuan/mt from the previous day. Overall, with inventories falling for four consecutive days, suppliers held prices firm for shipments, leading to a significant rise in spot premiums.
(3) Imported copper: On November 24, warrant prices were $28-40/mt, QP December, with the average price up $1/mt from the previous trading day. Bill of lading (B/L) prices were $44-56/mt, QP December, with the average price up $2/mt from the previous day. EQ copper (CIF B/L) prices were $0-10/mt, QP December, with the average price down $1/mt from the previous day. Quotations refer to cargoes arriving in mid-to-late November and early December.
(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on November 24, the futures closing price was 86,140 yuan/mt, up 470 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was 85 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials rose 300 yuan/mt. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 78,300-78,500 yuan/mt, up 300 yuan/mt from the previous day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 2,821 yuan/mt, up 146 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,440 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, due to a deduction of 800-900 yuan/mt for secondary copper rod, many secondary copper rod enterprises reported poor sales during the day. In the afternoon, prices even had to be reduced by another 100-200 yuan/mt to achieve transactions, resulting in mediocre overall trading activity.
(5) Inventory: On November 21, LME copper cathode inventories increased by 725 mt to 155,750 mt. On November 21, SHFE warrant inventories decreased by 5,193 mt to 49,790 mt.
Prices: On the macro front, several US Fed officials held dovish views on further interest rate cuts, and the probability of a Fed rate cut in December increased to 80%, providing support for copper prices. On the fundamentals side, supply-side imported arrivals decreased, while state-owned supply replenished normally. Demand weakened after the rebound in copper prices. Inventory side, as of Monday, November 24, SMM copper inventories in mainstream regions across China decreased by 13,900 mt WoW to 180,600 mt. Overall, copper prices are expected to find support at lower levels today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]
